by Brandon Goldman @realbgold
Since declaring his candidacy for president in April, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been many things to many people. Having initially declared as a Democrat, he was first viewed by some disaffected Joe Biden supporters as a welcome bit of nostalgia for a time gone past.
The environmental lawyer and nephew of former president John F. Kennedy wasted no time making headlines. The AP was one of many publications quick to label him an “anti-vaccine activist.” ABC News similarly claimed he was guilty of spreading “medical misinformation.”
Despite his Kennedy name, he immediately became a threat to Joe Biden’s re-election effort simply by running as a Democrat. But after months of hovering between 15-20% support, he made the decision in early October to start anew by declaring as an Independent.
RFK Jr. and his campaign team clearly lost confidence that they could achieve a victory against President Biden in the primary field. However, his role in the presidential race has shaken things up in a way that analysts on both sides of the aisle are possibly too quick to brush off.
As of the end of September, the Kennedy campaign had just over $6 million cash on hand. They also seem to be spending funds almost as quickly as they are coming in. One massive expense for the campaign has been almost $1 million last quarter for security; this following the arrest of a potential attacker who infiltrated a Kennedy campaign event in September.
An interesting piece of data revealed by Politico shows that most of RFK Jr.’s funds have come from large dollar donors who have no recent donation history. Only $3.4 million of his total $15.1 million has come from large dollar donors associated with Republicans or Democrats. This indicates he draws the most support not from Republican or Democrat-leaning Independent voters, but from those who have been completely turned off by both parties.
In a recent poll from Quinnipiac University, Kennedy still leads among Independents with 33% support. Even more impressive, the poll finds, in a three-way general election with voters of any political persuasion, Joe Biden is on top at 39%, and Donald Trump is at 36%, but Kennedy claims a staggering 22% national support. Additionally, in several swing state polls published on Tuesday, November 7th, Kennedy is holding strong with over 20% support. But it is natural to wonder if this level of support for RFK Jr. is sustainable, given the inevitability of a binary choice when the time comes for people to cast a vote.
RFK Jr. would likely have to carry his current levels of support all the way to the general election to have any sort of role in flipping the election one way or another.
In previous election cycles, Independent candidates have, at best, played the role of a “spoiler” candidate. Ross Perot in the 1992 presidential election is often cited as having cost George H.W. Bush his re-election effort, although this allegation is not totally substantiated. But Presidents Biden and Trump are still deeply unpopular with the public, with only around one in three Americans viewing them favorably. The notion of Kennedy playing a spoiler role does not seem unreasonable, with both major-party candidates so far underwater.
RFK Jr. is undoubtedly the biggest wild card in the 2024 race. If he continues to draw the support he currently has, the present projections for Trump or Biden could be drastically off. Since name recognition will not be a problem for Kennedy, he may actually have a shot to increase his support over time.