By David Street @david_street17
Caleb Williams is the Heisman race frontrunner. Wait, now he’s not. Okay, Drake Maye is the frontrunner. Wait, it’s not him either? Jayden Daniels? It has to be him, right? No? Michael Penix? Bo Nix? Dillon Gabriel? Jordan Travis? JJ McCarthy? Ollie Gordon?
Who the heck is going to win the Heisman Trophy?
Well, that’s what makes this Heisman race so particularly exciting. Nobody truly knows who’s going to win it, and we likely won’t know until the very end. Caleb Williams entered the season as the favorite, and rightfully so, considering he won it last year. However, with the USC Trojans now suffering three losses in their last four games, it’s safe to say that he is now officially out of the running, or at least no longer the frontrunner. Keep in mind that Williams’ stats are still excellent (2,958 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, four interceptions, 69.2 completion percentage, ten rushing touchdowns so far this season). But because the competition is so tight this year, unfortunately, a player is going to be affected by his team’s win-loss record.
Who’s the current favorite in the Heisman Race?
According to BetMGM, Washington Huskies signal-caller Michael Penix is the favorite at +150. And why wouldn’t he be? Not only is his team undefeated, he’s got the numbers to back it up. Through nine games, Penix has 3,201 passing yards (leads the nation), 26 passing touchdowns (third in the nation), seven interceptions, 9.9 yards per pass attempt (sixth in the nation), and a 174.6 passer rating (seventh in the nation).
In addition, Penix has shown up against competition. Here are his numbers against #23 Arizona, #6 Oregon, and USC (which did drop out of the rankings but are worth including as they’ll likely get back in): 921 passing yards, 6 passing touchdowns, two interceptions, and a 69.2 completion percentage.
Is Penix the Best Quarterback?
All that being said, even though Penix is the current betting favorite, and rightfully so, is he even the best quarterback? Well, numbers would suggest that while he’s certainly up there, the answer is ultimately no. The best quarterback so far this season is LSU’s Jayden Daniels. As of right now, he has 2,792 passing yards (fifth in the nation), 27 passing touchdowns (second in the nation), four interceptions, 11.3 yards per pass attempt (leads the nation), a 72.1 completion percentage (seventh in the nation), and a passer rating of 199.9 (leads the nation). He’s the only quarterback in Division 1 to rank top five in passing yards, passing touchdowns, and passer rating. In addition, he’s a threat with his legs, as evidenced by his 684 rushing yards (second among quarterbacks) and six rushing touchdowns. Overall, Daniels has 3,476 total yards and 33 total touchdowns.
Yet despite those numbers, Jayden Daniels likely won’t win the Heisman because of something that’s completely out of his control. It’s unfortunate that LSU’s defense, despite being talented on paper, has been a massive disappointment this season. Daniels has been putting up Heisman numbers all year, but ultimately, it hasn’t been enough, thanks to his team’s atrocious defensive performances, which have led to three losses. Keep in mind that LSU was a preseason top-five team coming in. If LSU’s defense was at least average, there’s no doubt that Daniels would be the frontrunner right now.
Tight Competition Leads to Great Playing
But that’s just been the nature of the beast this year when it comes to the Heisman race. As I mentioned before, the competition has been so tight. Wins and losses are going to be a deciding factor. Agree or disagree, that’s just how it is. Daniels has been the best quarterback, but not to the point where he’s the clear-cut winner.
In fact, the last time I can recall a quarterback winning the award regardless of his team’s win-loss record was in 2016 when the Heisman went to Lamar Jackson of the Louisville Cardinals. Louisville went 9-4 that season, but Jackson was so far ahead of everyone else that it would have been an insult if anyone other than him had won the award. That just hasn’t been the case this year. We’ve already looked at how Williams, Penix, and Daniels have fared, but there are a few other candidates we should examine as well:
Bo Nix: 2,723 passing yards (eighth in the nation), 25 passing touchdowns (fourth in the nation), two interceptions, 78.1 completion percentage (leads the nation), 180.1 passer rating (fourth in the nation).
JJ McCarthy: 2,134 passing yards (39th in the nation), 18 passing touchdowns (tied for 22nd in the nation), three interceptions, 75.7 completion percentage (third in the nation), 10.4 yards per pass attempt (tied for second in the nation), 188.7 passer rating (second in the nation)
Ollie Gordon: 1,224 rushing yards (leads the nation), seven yards per carry, 12 rushing touchdowns (tied for fourth in the nation).
As you can see, no one has truly stood out this season. It’s going to come down to the wire, and that’s not exactly uncommon. Last year, Hendon Hooker seemed like a surefire bet to win the Heisman until his unfortunate injury. Caleb Williams didn’t become the frontrunner until the end. And does anybody remember 2018 when it seemed like Tua Tagovailoa was going to run away with the Trophy until Kyler Murray seemingly came out of nowhere to take it? And in 2020, winner DeVonta Smith didn’t become the frontrunner until the very end, making him the first wide receiver to win the award since Desmond Howard in 1991.
So who’s going to win the Heisman? We really might not know until conference championship weekend. It’s been a rollercoaster ride, so buckle up—it’s about to get even bumpier. Come enjoy the ride with us at Total Sports.
Follow David on Twitter: @David_Street17