Image from: Reuters
After a third-place finish in Iowa and a second-place finish in New Hampshire, Nikki Haley does not have a clear path to victory for the Republican presidential nomination. Former President Donald Trump holds a strong lead of 27 points in the upcoming South Carolina primary and is already positioning himself for his matchup against President Biden in November.
So why is Haley staying in the race when it would essentially take an act of God to defeat Trump? There are two possibilities.
Delegates, Delegates, Delegates
The next primary election is in Nevada, where Nikki Haley is not on the ballot. After that comes South Carolina, a winner-take-all state, where Trump could potentially acquire all 50 delegates. Those two contests could give Trump a significant lead in the delegate count, putting him well on his way to the 1,215 needed to secure the victory.
In the best possible scenario for the Haley campaign, the former ambassador will overperform on Super Tuesday (March 5th), when 16 states will be holding primary votes. Since Trump has locked down the vast majority of Republican voters, Haley is counting on Democrats and Independents to cast their votes for her in the 12 states that hold “open primaries,” meaning voting is not limited to registered Republicans. Should a significant number of non-Republicans turn out, Haley might catch the Trump team off guard by securing a more substantial share of delegates.
Should this scenario play out, the former South Carolina Governor may pick up enough momentum to make her opponent sweat.
Nikki Haley 2028
However, the most significant reason Nikki Haley wants to finish strong in the primary is to secure her status as the runner-up.
Every candidate who has run in the primary so far knows that Trump’s hold on the Republican electorate is ironclad. However, this will likely be the last time he runs for president. If Trump loses the general election again, he will be 81 years old by the time 2028 comes around.
Therefore, if Haley concludes the primary with a strong delegate count, she could be well-positioned to emerge as the leading candidate for the 2028 election.
In recent history, the runners-up in Republican primaries have almost always gone on to secure the nomination in future elections.
In 2000, John McCain secured the second position after George W. Bush but later won the Republican primary in 2008. Similarly, Mitt Romney finished behind McCain in 2008 and later went on to clinch the presidential nomination in 2012.
Surely, Haley is looking to these examples to see that a second-place finish is far from a failure. As a relatively younger politician who has credibility with various factions of the Republican voter base and even with Independents, second place would set her up nicely for the future.
Ultimately, there is no incentive for Nikki Haley to drop out of the presidential contest. The only reason she would quit now is if the campaign’s well of cash dries up. And after that – we’ll see her in 2028.
Brandon Goldman is the Chief Development Officer for American Daily Press and is based outside of Boston, MA