by Brandon Goldman @realbgold
Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) has announced that he will not run for re-election in 2024. Manchin has served in the Senate since 2010, and now, at age 76, he is opening the door for a Republican to flip his seat.
West Virginia, despite electing Manchin as a Democrat, is one of the most Republican-leaning states in the nation, with nearly 70% of voters having pulled the lever for Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020. Joe Manchin’s retirement leads to a very high likelihood that a Republican will take his place in 2024.
Who Is Likely to Win Seat After Joe Manchin’s Retirement?
The overwhelming favorite in the field is current West Virginia Governor Jim Justice, who leads Manchin by 13 points in a head-to-head matchup. If Justice were to secure a victory, both the state’s senate seats would then be controlled by Republicans.
In 2024, there will be 34 Senate seats on the ballot. Of those 34, one—West Virginia—is almost certain to flip, and six others—Arizona, Ohio, Montana, Nevada, and Michigan—appear to be tossups. All of these states have a current Democrat incumbent, with the exception of Arizona, where Kyrsten Sinema serves as an Independent.
In the most likely scenario for Republicans, 2024 could secure one additional Senate seat. This would create a 50-50 split in the chamber, giving a razor-thin majority to Democrats thanks to Vice President Harris’s tie-breaking vote. However, Republicans have been widely underperforming in congressional elections since 2018. It is possible that some wildcard seat could flip blue – potentially in Texas or Florida, despite these states being Republican-leaning.
The best bets for Republicans will be in Ohio and Montana. As of now, Ohio incumbent Sherrod Brown has only a slight lead over his Republican challenger Bernie Moreno.
In Montana, Democrat Jon Tester is up for re-election against former Navy Seal Tim Sheehy. Tester is currently leading by a similar margin of four points in the latest poll, and won his election in 2018 by a margin of only 3.5%.
In Arizona, the biggest threat to Kyrsten Sinema comes not from the right, but from her Democrat challenger, Ruben Gallego. However, it is possible that Sinema could opt out of the race entirely since she is down in most of the polls against Gallego. Though he is polling well, Gallego does not currently have over 50% support, which is generally needed to be considered a strong candidate.
On the GOP side, Kari Lake or Blake Masters could be nominated despite having lost their gubernatorial and Senate races, respectively. The polling is still relatively close between these Republican, Democrat, and Independent candidates, leaving the Arizona race wide open.
The 2024 Senate map could end up looking very much as it does now, with the exception of a newly minted Republican taking the place of Joe Manchin in West Virginia. With just under one year until the elections, there is surely much to come that can shake up the present consensus.