Image from: AP
The Republican candidates are ramping up their efforts to secure the first victory of the election cycle in next week’s Iowa Caucuses on January 15.
In the latest polls, Donald Trump still commands a 32-point lead over his nearest challenger, Governor Ron DeSantis. Despite polling around 47% since last May, the former president finally holds over 50% support in Iowa, which could be a death blow to the remaining Republicans in the field.
In fact, President Trump’s dominance is so overwhelming in almost every state that his victory seems inevitable, so much so that other contenders are hesitant to criticize the former president as they are afraid of distancing themselves from his dedicated supporters. Avoiding stepping on Trump’s toes is likewise a prudent move for those who want to leave the door open to becoming his vice-presidential pick should he secure the nomination.
Candidate Strategy in the Iowa Caucuses
Some analysts and pundits have speculated that Governor DeSantis could overperform in the Iowa caucuses due to his conservative stance on social issues, which aligns more closely with the state’s electorate than, for example, Nikki Haley’s. The Florida governor would already need to break off a considerable chunk of support from the other candidates to pull off a surprise upset victory in Iowa, and he faces an uphill battle in the rest of the primaries as well. Plus, the support for New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will likely migrate to the Haley camp now that he has exited the race.
Vivek Ramaswamy has been far and away the most active candidate in Iowa, having held nearly 250 campaign events to date. That is more than double the number of campaign stops as DeSantis, who has held around 100. Nevertheless, the latest polls have the Silicon Valley tech millionaire in fourth place with around 6% support and unlikely to win any primary battles. Ramaswamy’s tenor at the recent GOP debates makes it a safe assumption that he is actually jockeying for a shot at the vice presidency or another position within a Trump administration should he win the presidency again.
Trump Stumps at the Last Minute in Iowa
President Trump has been mostly absent from Iowa until very recently, campaigning around the state over the weekend. Court hearings in New York, Florida, and elsewhere have kept the former president occupied, but he is still counting on his supporters to show up for the Iowa caucuses next week.
“Don’t stay home, just please. The polls are showing we’re going to win by a lot. The worst thing you can do is say, ‘Let’s just stay home, Alice. Let’s watch it on television.’” Addressing a crowd of his supporters in Iowa over the weekend, Trump continued, “We don’t want to do that. You gotta get out because the more we win by — we’re shooting for November because we want to send a message. We can’t be beaten.”
At the rally, Trump mainly spoke about anodyne topics such as the southern border and inflation but included his hang-ups about the “stolen” 2020 election, including references to his supporters who were arrested for their participation during the riot as “hostages.”
How Do the Candidates Respond to Trump?
Nikki Haley has continued to offer her arguments as to why she is a better choice for president than Trump. She touts her foreign policy accomplishments as ambassador to the United Nations and cites the threats from China, Russia, and Iran as existential to the U.S.
The non-Trump supporting Republicans have a tough line to tow when choosing which candidate to support. In persuading voters towards her and away from Ron DeSantis – her closest rival – Haley asserts that she is projected to perform better against Joe Biden in a head-to-head contest.
Further, Haley and DeSantis argue that while Trump was right for 2016 and 2020, he is only a roadblock to the current goals of the GOP. These candidates are hoping for their potential supporters to recall the losses Republicans face in the 2018, 2020, and 2022 elections, with President Trump even calling for Republican voters in Georgia to stay home in 2020 during the runoff election, thereby handing Democrats two Senate seats and the majority in the chamber.
However, Trump delivered an entirely distinct message at his recent rally: “You have to get out, and you have to vote, vote, vote.”
Brandon Goldman is the Chief Development Officer for American Daily Press and is based outside of Boston, MA